What Happened
WTI crude oil (currently trading around $78.20 per barrel) has formed a rare technical pattern on the monthly chart — one that analysts say hasn’t appeared since 1989, over 36 years ago. Brent crude futures triggered the same signal, adding weight to the setup. The pattern reflects a prolonged period of price compression, where buying and selling pressure have reached an extreme equilibrium before a potential large directional move.
Key Levels
- Support 1: $74.00 — a major floor that has held across multiple tests in 2024
- Support 2: $68.50 — the longer-term structural low and a level that aligns with OPEC+ production cut thresholds
- Resistance 1: $83.00 — the recent swing high and a level where sellers have consistently stepped in
- Resistance 2: $89.50 — the 2024 yearly high and a key supply zone
Technical Picture
WTI is currently sitting just below its 200-day moving average (around $80.50), which is acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-day moving average at $76.80 is providing short-term support. RSI on the monthly chart sits near 42, suggesting the market is approaching oversold territory without fully reaching it — a condition often seen before large breakout moves. The rare pattern itself is a multi-decade symmetrical triangle on the long-term chart, which historically resolves with a strong breakout in either direction.
What Traders Are Watching
The critical line in the sand is $83.00. A weekly close above this level would signal a potential bullish breakout and bring $89.50 into play. On the downside, a break below $74.00 would likely accelerate selling toward $68.50. With OPEC+ meetings and US inventory data due shortly, volatility is expected to increase. Australian traders exposed to energy stocks like Woodside (WDS) and Santos (STO) should monitor these levels closely as oil price direction directly impacts local energy sector performance.
Bias
Neutral with a bullish lean. The rare long-term pattern suggests a major move is building, and with RSI approaching oversold on the monthly chart, risk/reward slightly favours the upside — but confirmation above $83.00 is needed before committing to a directional trade.