What Happened
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Monthly Energy Review on Tuesday, confirming that US energy production reached an all-time record in 2025 โ a 3.4% jump from the previous record set just a year earlier in 2024. The surge in supply has added fresh downward pressure on WTI crude oil, which is currently trading near $78.40 per barrel, down approximately 1.1% on the session.
Key Levels
- Support 1: $77.00 โ a well-tested floor from the March 2025 consolidation zone
- Support 2: $74.50 โ major structural low and prior demand zone from late 2024
- Resistance 1: $80.00 โ psychological round number and recent swing high
- Resistance 2: $82.60 โ the 200-day moving average and key supply zone
Technical Picture
WTI crude is trading below both its 50-day moving average ($81.20) and 200-day moving average ($82.60), confirming a bearish trend structure. The RSI sits at approximately 38, approaching oversold territory but not yet at a level that typically triggers a strong reversal. The trend remains firmly to the downside unless price can reclaim $80.00 on a closing basis.
What Traders Are Watching
The key line in the sand is $77.00. A clean break and daily close below this level could open the door toward $74.50. Conversely, if WTI reclaims $80.00, short-covering could push price back toward the $82.60 resistance zone. Australian traders should also monitor the impact on BHP and RIO, both of which carry energy exposure and could face selling pressure if crude continues to slide.
Bias โ Bearish
The bias is bearish. Record US supply growth fundamentally tips the supply-demand balance in favour of lower prices. Until OPEC+ responds with meaningful production cuts or demand data improves significantly, the path of least resistance for WTI remains to the downside.