What Happened
US stock futures declined modestly in overnight trade, with S&P 500 futures slipping approximately 0.3% to around 5,210 and Nasdaq futures falling 0.4% to near 18,150. The pullback came as escalating tensions involving Iran sparked a risk-off mood across global markets. Meanwhile, traders are holding back from large bets ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — a key measure of inflation that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Key Levels
S&P 500 Futures:
Support: 5,180 (recent consolidation floor) and 5,100 (major swing low)
Resistance: 5,265 (recent session high) and 5,330 (all-time high zone)
ASX 200:
Support: 7,750 (short-term support) and 7,680 (April swing low)
Resistance: 7,850 (near-term ceiling) and 7,920 (recent peak)
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 remains in a broader uptrend above its 50-day moving average (~5,100), but momentum is fading near resistance. The RSI has pulled back from overbought territory (above 70) to around 58, suggesting the rally is cooling without breaking down. The ASX 200 is trading in a neutral range between 7,750 and 7,850, with no clear directional signal until a breakout occurs.
What Traders Are Watching
- US CPI Data: A reading above 3.5% year-on-year could reignite rate-hike fears, pushing S&P 500 below 5,180 support.
- ASX 200 at 7,750: A close below this level would signal downside risk toward 7,680.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Holding above $2,300/oz as a safe-haven play — a push through $2,350 would confirm geopolitical fear is driving flows.
- Oil (WTI): Watching $85/barrel resistance; a break higher on Iran tensions could pressure inflation expectations further.
Bias
Neutral-to-Bearish (short-term). The combination of geopolitical risk and CPI uncertainty creates a cautious environment. Until the inflation data clears, upside is likely capped. Traders should wait for a confirmed reaction to CPI before adding risk.