What Happened
US President Donald Trump described Chinese President Xi Jinping as ‘all business’ as high-stakes trade talks entered a second day, following a pointed warning from Beijing over Taiwan. The diplomatic tension injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.4% to around 5,620 and the Nasdaq dipping 0.6% to approximately 17,890 during the session. The ASX 200 tracked Wall Street’s cautious tone, hovering near 8,150 as traders weighed the geopolitical risk premium.
Key Levels
S&P 500: Support at 5,580 and 5,500. Resistance at 5,670 and 5,720.
ASX 200: Support at 8,080 and 7,980. Resistance at 8,220 and 8,300.
Gold (XAU/USD): Support at $3,280 and $3,220. Resistance at $3,350 and $3,400 — safe-haven demand remains elevated amid geopolitical risk.
Iron Ore: Support at $98/t and $94/t. Resistance at $104/t and $108/t — China demand outlook is the key driver here.
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 remains in a short-term uptrend from its April lows but is showing signs of fatigue near resistance. The 50-day moving average sits around 5,540 — a level bulls need to defend. RSI on the S&P 500 is hovering near 58, not yet overbought but losing momentum. The ASX 200 is trading just below its 8,200 resistance zone, with BHP and RIO particularly sensitive to any shift in China sentiment. Gold is holding above its 20-day moving average, a bullish sign for the safe-haven trade.
What Traders Are Watching
The key trigger is the outcome of Trump-Xi talks. A constructive statement could push the S&P 500 back toward 5,720 and lift iron ore above $104/t, boosting BHP and RIO. Any escalation over Taiwan could send gold through $3,350 and drag the ASX 200 below 8,080. Watch for headlines during Asian trading hours — that’s when this risk is most live for Australian traders.
Bias
Neutral to cautious. Until there is a clear resolution or breakdown in US-China talks, markets are likely to chop sideways. Risk assets face a cap from geopolitical uncertainty, while gold has a near-term tailwind.
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