What Happened
Malaysia’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, edging above analyst expectations but decelerating from the 4Q25 pace. UOB’s economics team, led by Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, flagged that Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to hold rates steady, with growth risks tilted to the downside. This is a regional macro data point — not a direct market mover — but it carries read-through implications for Australian resource and export-linked stocks.
Key Levels to Watch
With Malaysia’s data adding to a cautious regional growth picture, the focus shifts to key commodity proxies on the ASX:
- ASX 200: Support at 7,750 and 7,680. Resistance at 7,900 and 8,050.
- BHP: Support at $43.20 and $41.80. Resistance at $45.50 and $47.00.
- Iron Ore (spot): Support near $95/t and $91/t. Resistance at $102/t and $108/t.
Technical Picture
The ASX 200 remains in a short-term consolidation phase, trading below its 50-day moving average (~7,920) and struggling to reclaim the 200-day moving average (~7,870). RSI sits near 45 — neutral, leaning slightly bearish. BHP and RIO have both underperformed the broader index over the past two weeks as iron ore prices have softened on mixed Chinese demand signals.
What Traders Are Watching
The $95/t iron ore level is critical — a break below this could pressure BHP toward $43.00 and drag the broader materials sector. On the upside, a hold above $100/t iron ore would likely provide a floor for RIO near $118.00 and BHP near $45.50. Traders are also watching whether Malaysia’s softening growth is a canary for broader ASEAN demand weakness, which would weigh on Australian LNG and commodity exporters.
Bias
Neutral to Bearish on ASX materials in the near term. Slowing regional growth in Southeast Asia, combined with no rate cuts expected from Bank Negara, reduces the appetite for risk in commodity-linked equities until Chinese demand data provides a clearer signal.
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