What Happened
DBS economists are forecasting Japan’s Q1 2025 GDP to expand at 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (annualised), driven by strong exports and rising investment in AI and semiconductor sectors. Despite the solid economic print, the Japanese yen (JPY) remains under selling pressure, with USD/JPY holding above the 155.00 level as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the currency.
Key Levels โ USD/JPY
Support: 153.60 (recent swing low) and 151.90 (April consolidation floor)
Resistance: 156.50 (near-term ceiling) and 158.00 (year-to-date high zone)
Technical Picture
USD/JPY remains in a broad uptrend on the daily chart, trading above both its 50-day moving average (~153.80) and 200-day moving average (~152.40). RSI sits near 58 โ not yet overbought, suggesting room for further yen weakness if resistance at 156.50 gives way. A weaker yen historically supports Japanese exporters but adds import cost pressure across Asia.
What Traders Are Watching
For ASX traders, a persistently weak yen puts competitive pressure on Australian exporters competing with Japanese firms, particularly in steel and resources. Watch BHP (current support near $43.20, resistance at $45.80) and RIO (support $118.50, resistance $123.00) โ both sensitive to Asian currency moves and iron ore demand from Japan. Gold (XAU/USD) traders should note that yen weakness often signals broader USD strength, a headwind for gold above the $3,200 resistance level, with support sitting at $3,145 and $3,090.
Bias
Neutral-to-Bearish on JPY / Cautious on Gold short-term. While Japan’s GDP data is encouraging, ongoing trade uncertainty means the yen is unlikely to recover meaningfully in the near term. This keeps mild pressure on gold and Asian-linked ASX resources names until a clearer USD trend emerges.
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