What Happened
The Indian Rupee (INR) has shed more than 6% against the US Dollar in 2026, with BNY analyst Bob Savage flagging that Indian authorities are actively considering tax cuts on foreign investors’ bond income to attract capital inflows and stabilise the currency. An oil import waiver is also being floated as a relief measure. For Australian traders, a weaker rupee matters because India is a major buyer of commodities โ particularly iron ore, coal and crude oil.
Key Levels to Watch
While INR/USD is not a direct trade for most ASX retail traders, the knock-on effects hit markets that are. Key levels to monitor:
- Iron Ore: Support at $95.00/tonne, with secondary support at $91.50. Resistance sits at $100.00 and $104.50.
- WTI Crude Oil: Support at $76.50 and $74.00. Resistance at $80.00 and $82.50.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Support at $2,310 and $2,280. Resistance at $2,360 and $2,400.
Technical Picture
Iron ore remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 50-day moving average. WTI crude is consolidating near its 200-day moving average around $77.00, with RSI sitting near neutral at 48 โ no clear directional signal yet. Gold continues to hold above the key $2,300 level, maintaining its broader uptrend.
What Traders Are Watching
If Indian demand softens further due to currency pressure, iron ore could retest the $91.50 support โ a level that would weigh on BHP and RIO on the ASX. A break below $74.00 in WTI would be bearish for energy-linked names. Conversely, if India’s tax measures succeed in stabilising the rupee and boosting demand, a reclaim of $100.00 in iron ore would be a bullish trigger for the ASX materials sector.
Bias
Neutral to Bearish on iron ore and ASX materials in the short term. Currency instability in a major commodity-importing nation like India adds demand uncertainty, and until the rupee stabilises, headwinds for BHP and RIO are likely to persist.
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