What Happened
Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) have underperformed in 2024, with HD down roughly 4% year-to-date to around $340 and LOW trading near $220, off its 52-week highs. However, UBS analysts have turned constructive on both names, arguing that the wave of homes built during the mid-2000s housing boom โ now 15โ20 years old โ is approaching a structural repair and renovation cycle that could drive a significant revenue uplift for both retailers.
Key Levels
Home Depot (HD):
- Support 1: $325 โ recent consolidation low and 200-day moving average zone
- Support 2: $310 โ major swing low from early 2024
- Resistance 1: $355 โ 50-day moving average and prior breakdown point
- Resistance 2: $375 โ 52-week high and key supply zone
Lowe’s (LOW):
- Support 1: $210 โ horizontal support from Q1 2024
- Support 2: $198 โ longer-term demand zone
- Resistance 1: $232 โ 50-day moving average
- Resistance 2: $248 โ 52-week high
Technical Picture
Both stocks are in a short-term downtrend but showing early signs of stabilisation near key support. HD’s RSI sits near 42 โ not yet oversold but approaching levels where buyers have previously stepped in. LOW’s RSI is similarly subdued at around 44. The 200-day moving average on HD (~$325) is a critical line in the sand for trend traders.
What Traders Are Watching
A daily close above $355 on HD would signal a potential trend reversal and could attract momentum buyers. For LOW, bulls want to see a reclaim of $232 to shift short-term sentiment. On the downside, a break of $310 (HD) or $198 (LOW) would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Bias
Cautiously Bullish โ The structural housing repair thesis is compelling, but traders should wait for a confirmed break above near-term resistance before committing. The risk/reward improves significantly on a pullback to key support levels.
Note: Australian traders can access HD and LOW via US market CFDs or international share trading platforms.