What Happened
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and team have revised their Federal Reserve outlook, scrapping any expectation of rate cuts in 2026 and pushing the first move out to 2027. The culprit: sticky inflation driven by the Iran conflict, elevated Oil (WTI currently trading near $83.50/barrel) and strained global supply chains slowing the disinflation process. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% to approximately 5,218 on the news, while the Nasdaq shed 0.8% to around 18,240 as rate-sensitive growth stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
Key Levels
S&P 500: Support at 5,180 and 5,050. Resistance at 5,310 and 5,375.
Nasdaq: Support at 18,000 and 17,650. Resistance at 18,550 and 18,900.
ASX 200: Support at 8,180 and 8,050. Resistance at 8,350 and 8,450.
WTI Oil: Support at $81.00 and $78.50. Resistance at $85.50 and $88.00.
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 remains in a short-term uptrend but is pressing against its 50-day moving average near 5,250 — a level it needs to reclaim to maintain bullish momentum. RSI sits around 52, suggesting neutral territory with room to fall. The ASX 200 is trading below its 20-day moving average of 8,290, a mild bearish signal for the near term. On the commodity side, WTI Oil is trending higher above its 50-day MA of $80.20, reinforcing the inflation narrative.
What Traders Are Watching
For US equities, a close below S&P 500 5,180 would signal renewed selling pressure. On the ASX, financials like CBA and ANZ — which benefit from rate cuts — are vulnerable if the RBA also delays its own easing cycle in sympathy. Watch WTI Oil at $85.50; a breakout there could reignite inflation fears and accelerate the equity selloff. Gold (XAU/USD) near $2,360 is one to watch as a safe-haven play if risk sentiment deteriorates further.
Bias
Bearish. Higher-for-longer US rates remove a key tailwind for equities. Until Oil pulls back and inflation data improves, the path of least resistance for both the ASX and US indices is lower.
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