What Happened
Copper prices have broken to all-time record highs, surpassing the previous peak of $5.20 per pound (approximately $11,460 per tonne) set in May 2024. The move is being driven by a combination of AI infrastructure demand and a growing supply disruption risk centred on copper refining routes through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global commodity shipping.
Key Levels
- Support 1: $5.00/lb — psychological round number and recent consolidation zone
- Support 2: $4.72/lb — the March 2025 swing low and 50-day moving average zone
- Resistance 1: $5.35/lb — current all-time high / price discovery territory
- Resistance 2: $5.60/lb — projected target based on measured move from the prior base pattern
Technical Picture
Copper is in a clear uptrend across all timeframes. Price is trading well above its 50-day moving average (~$4.80/lb) and 200-day moving average (~$4.40/lb). RSI is elevated near 72, signalling overbought conditions in the short term — meaning a pullback to support is possible before any further leg higher.
What Traders Are Watching
ASX-listed miners BHP and RIO are the clearest local proxies for copper exposure. Traders are watching whether BHP can hold above $44.50 and RIO above $118.00 on any copper pullback. A daily close back below $5.00/lb in copper would be a warning sign for both stocks. On the upside, a sustained break above $5.35/lb could trigger another leg higher in both miners.
Bias
Bullish — The combination of structural AI-driven copper demand and a new supply-side risk via Strait of Hormuz refining disruptions creates a strong fundamental backdrop. While short-term overbought signals warrant caution, the path of least resistance remains higher.
Source: Barron’s — Copper prices are now at their highest level on record