What Happened
TD Securities economists are forecasting Canadian Manufacturing Sales to climb 3.2% month-on-month for March โ slightly below the broader market consensus. The key drivers are a roughly 20% surge in gasoline prices at the pump and stronger transportation/auto sector output. This data is due for release and will feed directly into global energy sentiment.
Key Levels to Watch
For WTI Crude Oil, the energy angle is most relevant for Australian traders. Current key levels:
โข Support 1: $76.50/barrel โ recent consolidation floor
โข Support 2: $74.00/barrel โ major demand zone from early 2024
โข Resistance 1: $80.00/barrel โ psychological round number and prior breakdown level
โข Resistance 2: $83.50/barrel โ February swing high
For ASX Energy names like BHP and RIO, watch:
โข BHP Support: $43.50 / Resistance: $46.20
โข RIO Support: $118.00 / Resistance: $124.50
Technical Picture
WTI remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 50-day moving average. RSI sits near 45 โ not yet oversold, suggesting further downside is possible before buyers step in firmly. BHP and RIO have been range-bound, reflecting uncertainty in iron ore and energy prices simultaneously.
What Traders Are Watching
A stronger-than-expected Canadian factory sales print could briefly lift oil prices back toward the $80.00 resistance level on WTI. If that level holds as resistance, expect renewed selling pressure on ASX energy and resources stocks. A break above $80.00 would shift short-term bias back to bullish for BHP and RIO. Traders should also monitor the Australian dollar (AUD/USD), as commodity strength typically supports the Aussie โ currently watching the $0.6450 support and $0.6550 resistance levels.
Bias
Neutral to mildly bearish on WTI and ASX energy names in the short term. The Canadian data is a modest positive for energy sentiment, but WTI’s failure to reclaim $80.00 keeps the technical picture weak. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout before adding long exposure to BHP or RIO.
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