What’s Being Released
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes its April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 11:30am AEST. The monthly CPI indicator has become a closely watched data point for traders, offering a timelier read on inflation than the quarterly figure the RBA traditionally relied upon.
What the Market Expects
Forecasts suggest headline inflation will remain well above the RBA’s 2โ3% target band for April. A persistently elevated reading would reinforce the view that the central bank has limited room to cut the cash rate aggressively, even as global peers begin easing cycles.
Why It Matters for Australian Traders
A hotter-than-expected CPI print is likely to support the Australian dollar (AUD/USD), as it reduces the probability of near-term RBA rate cuts. Conversely, a softer reading could weigh on the AUD and lift rate-sensitive ASX sectors such as real estate investment trusts (REITs) and utilities, which tend to benefit when borrowing costs fall.
For traders holding AUD accounts, the CPI release is one of the highest-impact local data events this week. Spreads on AUD/USD and ASX 200 CFDs can widen sharply in the minutes around the print.
What Traders Are Watching Next
The RBA’s next board meeting is scheduled for 1 July 2025. Markets will use Wednesday’s CPI print to recalibrate expectations for that meeting. If inflation stays sticky, the probability of a July cut will diminish โ watch the 30-day interbank futures market for real-time repricing after the release.
Directional bias: Wait-and-see. The data itself will set the tone โ position sizing ahead of the release carries meaningful gap risk in both directions.
Source: FX Street