What Happened
Hot US inflation data released Tuesday sent shockwaves through global markets, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% to approximately 5,205, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% to around 16,290. On the ASX, the ASX 200 fell 0.5% to 7,748, weighed down by rate-sensitive financial and property stocks. Gold (XAU/USD) dipped 0.4% to $2,318/oz as the stronger US Dollar pressured commodity prices.
Key Levels
- ASX 200 โ Support: 7,700 (recent swing low) and 7,650 (April consolidation zone). Resistance: 7,800 (psychological level) and 7,850 (April high).
- S&P 500 โ Support: 5,180 (10-day moving average) and 5,100 (major support shelf). Resistance: 5,260 (last week’s high) and 5,300 (all-time high zone).
- Gold (XAU/USD) โ Support: $2,290 and $2,265. Resistance: $2,350 and $2,390.
Technical Picture
The ASX 200 remains in a short-term downtrend after failing to hold above 7,800. Price is trading below its 20-day moving average (approx. 7,790), a bearish signal in the near term. The S&P 500 is testing its 10-day moving average at 5,180 โ a close below this level could accelerate selling. Gold’s RSI has pulled back to around 55, suggesting the metal is no longer overbought but still in a broader uptrend above the 50-day MA at $2,210.
What Traders Are Watching
- A break below ASX 200 7,700 could open a move toward 7,650 โ watch BHP and CBA for sector-wide directional clues.
- On the S&P 500, 5,180 is the line in the sand. A hold here keeps bulls in the game; a break lower targets 5,100.
- Gold traders are eyeing $2,350 as the key level to reclaim for bullish momentum to resume.
- Oil (WTI) is holding near $82.50 โ a drop below $81.00 would add pressure to energy stocks like WBC and ANZ indirectly via risk sentiment.
Bias
Bearish short-term. Sticky US inflation reduces the chance of near-term Fed rate cuts, keeping pressure on equities and rate-sensitive ASX stocks. Until inflation data softens, rallies are likely to be sold.