What Happened
April’s inflation data came in hotter than expected in the US, reigniting fears that the Federal Reserve has no choice but to keep interest rates elevated — or even hike again. Bond markets reacted immediately, pushing yields higher as traders priced in a more aggressive Fed stance. The S&P 500 slipped under pressure, while the Nasdaq gave up gains as rate-sensitive tech stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. Gold (XAU/USD) pulled back toward $2,320 as a stronger US dollar weighed on the precious metal.
Key Levels
S&P 500: Support at 5,180 and 5,100. Resistance at 5,310 and 5,375.
Nasdaq: Support at 18,200 and 17,800. Resistance at 18,800 and 19,200.
ASX 200: Support at 7,750 and 7,680. Resistance at 7,900 and 8,000.
Gold (XAU/USD): Support at $2,300 and $2,265. Resistance at $2,360 and $2,400.
WTI Oil: Support at $76.50 and $74.00. Resistance at $80.00 and $82.50.
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 remains in a short-term uptrend but is testing its 20-day moving average around 5,200 — a key line in the sand. RSI has pulled back from overbought territory (above 70) to a neutral 55, suggesting room to fall further if sentiment shifts. The ASX 200 is trading below its 50-day moving average of 7,820, which is a mild bearish signal. Gold’s RSI sits near 52 — neutral — but the trend remains up on the daily chart as long as $2,265 holds.
What Traders Are Watching
All eyes are on whether the S&P 500 can hold 5,180. A break below that level could trigger a move toward 5,100. For the ASX 200, reclaiming 7,820 (50-day MA) would be a positive sign. On gold, a close below $2,300 would concern bulls. Watch CBA and ANZ on the ASX — rising US rates typically compress bank margins and can weigh on Australian bank stocks.
Bias
Bearish (short-term) — A stickier inflation print removes the Fed’s flexibility to cut rates, which is negative for equities and risk assets broadly. Until bond yields stabilise, the path of least resistance is lower.
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