What Happened
US markets retreated overnight as geopolitical risk returned to the forefront. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% to close at 5,mirror_placeholder, while the Nasdaq fell 0.9% as AI-linked names pulled back sharply. Nvidia dropped 2.4% to $127.80 after last week’s blistering run, and Microsoft eased 1.1% to $415.20. On the ASX, the benchmark ASX 200 dipped 0.4% to 7,780 in early trade, with tech and resource stocks leading losses. Gold (XAU/USD) surged to $2,388 per ounce โ up 1.3% โ as traders rotated into safe-haven assets on reports the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is under severe strain.
Key Levels
ASX 200: Support sits at 7,740 and 7,690. Resistance is seen at 7,820 and then the recent high of 7,870.
Nvidia: Support at $124.00 and $119.50. Resistance at $131.00 and $135.60.
Gold (XAU/USD): Support at $2,350 and $2,318. Resistance at $2,400 and $2,431 โ the April record high.
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 remains above its 50-day moving average (~5,180) but short-term momentum is fading, with RSI pulling back from overbought territory near 72 to a cooler 61. The ASX 200 is testing its 20-day moving average at 7,775 โ a close below here would signal the short-term trend is turning lower. Gold is back in a strong uptrend, trading well above both its 50-day ($2,310) and 200-day ($2,105) moving averages.
What Traders Are Watching
All eyes are on whether the ASX 200 can hold 7,740 support โ a break lower opens the door to 7,690. For Nvidia, bulls need to defend $124 or risk a deeper pullback to $119.50. Gold traders are watching $2,400 as the key breakout level; a daily close above that could trigger a run toward the April record of $2,431. Oil (WTI) is also in focus at $83.50 โ rising Middle East risk could push it back above $85.
Bias
Cautiously Bearish (Short-Term). The AI trade is taking a breather and geopolitical risk is rising. Until the ceasefire situation stabilises, expect choppy, risk-off conditions with gold and defensive stocks outperforming.