What Happened
TD Securities’ Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz released analysis arguing that AI’s disruption to the US labour market remains limited heading into 2026. Despite the hype, AI adoption is concentrated in large, knowledge-intensive firms and has not produced broad-based job displacement. The Nasdaq closed its most recent session at approximately 19,340, with AI-heavy names like Nvidia and Microsoft continuing to trade near elevated levels.
Key Levels
- Nasdaq Support: 18,900 (recent consolidation floor) and 18,400 (50-day moving average zone)
- Nasdaq Resistance: 19,550 (recent swing high) and 20,000 (major psychological level)
- Nvidia Support: $118 and $109 (prior breakout zone)
- Nvidia Resistance: $135 and $140 (multi-month high area)
Technical Picture
The Nasdaq remains in a short-term uptrend above its 50-day moving average (~18,400). RSI sits near 58 — not overbought, but momentum is fading slightly. Nvidia and Microsoft are both trading above their 20-day moving averages, suggesting the near-term trend still favours buyers. However, the index has stalled below the 19,550 resistance level for several sessions, a sign of indecision.
What Traders Are Watching
A clean break above 19,550 on the Nasdaq would likely invite fresh buying and a push toward the psychological 20,000 level. On the downside, a close below 18,900 would suggest the rally is losing steam and open the door to a test of 18,400. Traders will also be eyeing US non-farm payrolls and jobless claims data — if labour markets stay resilient (as TD Securities suggests), that removes one headwind for tech valuations.
Bias
Neutral to mildly bullish. Stable labour data removes a key risk for tech stocks — if AI isn’t destroying jobs yet, the Fed has less pressure to act aggressively. That keeps rate conditions supportive for growth stocks. However, the Nasdaq needs to clear 19,550 convincingly before a stronger bullish case can be made.